Dark Matter Politics a blog discussing the unseen forces influencing culture and politics in the Americas.

Adios Fidel

Fidel Castro is resigning the presidency of Cuba. But is he resigning control of the country? More significant, Fidel's influence will endure. The Cuban model will not change for some time.  The Cuban exile community in the US hoped that communist rule in Cuba would quickly crumble upon his demise. This will not occur. The political future of Cuba will be influenced by three factors.

The first is the second and third generation of hard-liners in the Cuban government that will follow from Fidel. These individuals will be bolstered by the support of Latin American leaders including Evo Morales, Rafael Correa and Hugo Chavez. Latin America's political DNA has evolved considerably in the past three years; helping to support the Cuban model. 

The second influence to consider is the upcoming US election. If elected Obama might opt for dialogue with the Cuban government. If elected McCain will probably follow the hard nose approach of the last eight years. If elected Hillary is likely to keep the status quo. While the United States does not have the will or credibility to deal with Cuba, the next president of the United States will play an important role.

The third factor to consider is the US embargo on the island. The US continues to ignore a United Nations vote (U.N 184-4) that called for the end of embargo, which has done nothing but deteriorate the living standard of the Cuban people.

Hugo Chavez New Constitution

Hugo Chavez is calling the Venezuelan people to the polls on the 2nd of December. What is at stake? A series of sixty nine changes to the constitution.

The more significant changes to the constitution include: 1) allowing Chavez to run for re-election indefinitely 2) extend presidential terms from six to seven years 3) create new types of property to be managed by cooperatives and communities and 4) limit the legal working day to six hours a day. The constitutional reforms are directed also at promoting Venezuelan-style socialism. Under a revised article 158, “The state will promote as national politics protagonist participation of the people, transferring power to the people and creating better conditions for construction of a socialist democracy.” The majority of the media has focused on the clause that allows Chavez to run for election indefinitely. The mainstream media calls this a breach of democratic principles and dictatorial; the United States did not have presidential term limits until 1951. Was the U.S. previously a dictatorship?

While monopolies would be banned under article 102, the modification of article 302 is what must be concerning the US government more than anything. The modified article 302 would guarantee state control over the oil industry, closing off any potential loophole that would allow privatisation of this resource; “The State reserves, for reasons of sovereignty, development and the national interest, the activity of exploitation of liquid, solid, and gaseous hydrocarbons as well as the exploitation of goods and services of public interest and strategic character.”

One of the most positive initiatives not mentioned by the mainstream media include the creation of a Social Stability Fund for ‘non-dependent’ or self employed workers such as taxi drivers, fishermen, and artisans, among others, to guarantee them the same fundamental rights as other workers such as retirement pensions, paid vacations and prenatal and postnatal leave entitlements.

In a tactic to defuse attention from the polls, Chavez officially terminated diplomatic relations with Colombia. The two nations are each other's second biggest trading partner after the US, with annual bilateral trade running at more than $4bn. One of his closest allies, Evo Morales, Bolivia’s president is only planning a referendum to pass changes to the constitution that would extend his power.

The Dream of South American Integration

In August 6, 1825 Simon Bolivar, credited for leading the fight for independence of several South America countries including Venezuela and Bolivia, founded the Republic of Bolivia. 179 years later The Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas was brought to life by the presidents of Cuba and Venezuela. This past week, Bolivia became the third member of The Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas; an ambitious alliance aimed as an alternative to the US sponsored Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA).

The Bolivarian Alternative calls for the eradication of illiteracy and the expansion of employment in each of the member countries and well as close economic and resource partnership among member nations. For example, under the agreement, Venezuela will provide preferential rates on all the subsidised oil Bolivia requires for its domestic consumption

As with Bolivar, the founding members of The Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas seek the integration of South America. Bolivar’s dream of an integrated South America lasted for little over a decade with the creation of the Greater Colombia, consisting of present-day Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Panama. Bolivar’s dream of an integrated South America under a federalist system was tainted by internal division and strife; leading Bolivar to proclaim himself dictator on August 27, 1828. This decision, aimed at saving the newly established republic, is the first instance and source of the “caudillo mentality” in South America. Dark Matter Politics published an article on the impact of the “caudillo mentality” we recommend you take a look at.

The ideals behind the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas, like Bolivar’s dream of a unified South America are commendable and to be encouraged. However, what will the role of this agreement in light of The Andean Community and Mercosur, two very successful economic and political regional agreements already in place? In fact these two trading blocs have tentatively been merged to create the South American Community of Nations, a continent-wide free trade zone eliminating tariffs for non-sensitive products by 2014. However, as Bolivar experienced 170 years before the agreement might not come to life.

The first issue might be Chile, which having 70% of its GDP attributed to foreign trade, it has traditionally favoured relations with the United States and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum over South American agreements. Furthermore, the relationship between Chile, Peru and Bolivia is tense due to the century old disputes over land as well as the increased expansion of Chilean companies in both countries.

The second issue might be Venezuela, which quit the Community of Andean Nations (CAN). President Chavez argued that as Colombia and Peru have signed free trade agreements (FTAs) with the United States, the Andean Community is "dead". Chávez's decision to withdraw from the CAN fell like a cold shower on Colombia, which exports $2.1 billion a year to Venezuela under the CAN trade agreement. Colombia's President Alvaro Uribe called on Venezuela ''not to get stuck in ideological debates over [political] models.'' He noted that Chávez sells 1.5 million barrels of oil a day to the United States, adding that Venezuela ``should allow other brotherly countries to enter the U.S. market, just like they do with their oil.''. It is evident Chavez decision to depart CAN, while driven by strong ideological beliefs, was fuelled by the creation of the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas.

The third issue that will determine the longevity and expansion of the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas is the upcoming elections in the region.

Country	Date of Election
Colombia	28th of May, 2006
Peru	28th of May, 2006
México	2nd of July, 2006
Brazil	1st of October, 2006
Nicaragua	7th of November, 2006
Ecuador	15th of October, 2006
Venezuela	November, 2006

The elections in Mexico and Colombia might accelerate or stop the future growth of the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas. In Mexico, it is unlikely the government of Fox will be re-elected (due to the poor economic performance of the country) with opposition candidate Mexico City Mayor, Andres Manuel López Obrador winning the election. Obrador without a doubt will align himself with Chavez, confirming the massive move of the region towards the left - providing some kind of support to the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas. A close working relationship between Obrador and Chavez certainly conjures nightmare for Washington and the Bush administration. Mexico and Colombia, which  contribute a quarter of all oil to the United States, could establish a “South American OPEC” by bringing Mexico's state owned oil company, Pemex, into a cooperative arrangement with the Venezuelan leader's oil trading bloc "Petrosur. In Colombia, Álvaro Uribe, the United States’ closest ally in Latin America will be re-elected - maintaining the status quo in the country towards The Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas. Peru will next to join the agreement, based on the expect win of Ollanta Humala.

The Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas provide a strong and commendable ideological platform for the region – economic, ideological and political independence. Most significant is a proposal for the set-up of  a “Compensatory Fund for Structural Convergence,” which would manage and distribute financial aid to the most economically vulnerable countries within the region. Furthermore, it recognises the importance of combining the state and free markets to manage the agricultural sector; as the sector cannot be deliberately subjected to market liberalisation, while developed countries maintain policies based on multi-million dollar subsidies and high import tariffs (to protect their own internal production).

However The Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas will only succeed if it can unite other countries within the region, working not only as an agent of economic and social development, but of understanding. Further integration in South America will not occur unless conflicts between its nations are resolved. This call for increased  understanding among South American governments will require a re conciliatory approach – a quality which Venezuelan president Chavez has yet to demonstrate. 

To be successful, The Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas should not be lead by “caudillos” but by pragmatic individuals who have lived and understand the needs of their people .To really benefit the people of South America, The Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas should be closer to Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal than Castro's Socialist revolution.