Fidel Castro is resigning the presidency of Cuba. But is he resigning control of the country? More significant, Fidel's influence will endure. The Cuban model will not change for some time. The Cuban exile community in the US hoped that communist rule in Cuba would quickly crumble upon his demise. This will not occur. The political future of Cuba will be influenced by three factors.
The first is the second and third generation of hard-liners in the Cuban government that will follow from Fidel. These individuals will be bolstered by the support of Latin American leaders including Evo Morales, Rafael Correa and Hugo Chavez. Latin America's political DNA has evolved considerably in the past three years; helping to support the Cuban model.
The second influence to consider is the upcoming US election. If elected Obama might opt for dialogue with the Cuban government. If elected McCain will probably follow the hard nose approach of the last eight years. If elected Hillary is likely to keep the status quo. While the United States does not have the will or credibility to deal with Cuba, the next president of the United States will play an important role.
The third factor to consider is the US embargo on the island. The US continues to ignore a United Nations vote (U.N 184-4) that called for the end of embargo, which has done nothing but deteriorate the living standard of the Cuban people.
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Posted by: Wangbu | Tuesday, January 13, 2009 at 03:00 PM